To Split or Not to Split the Alpine School District: One Voter’s Thoughts on Prop 11 and Prop 14

Much is said for, against, and simply about the proposed split of the Alpine School District (ASD) via ballot Propositions 11 and 14. I won’t try to report or evaluate all of it here. I’ll do two things:

• explain what’s on the ballot and how it will work, as clearly as I can, and
• discuss several issues and arguments, and how, for me, they move the needle or don’t.

After a quick preview of questions (discussion follows later), a bit of editorial housekeeping, and two requests, we’ll get to the information part. If you read here only for information and want to leave before the opinion and analysis, you’ll know when.

Some of my questions

Apart from how the propositions work — who gets to decide what, and which cities are grouped together into possible new school districts — here are some key questions I had when I finally dug in a few weeks ago. I’ll address them as best I can after the info portion.

• There’s a general philosophical argument to be made in favor of smaller government, closer to the people — but I don’t want to dismantle a school district which functions reasonably well based primarily on political theory. Beyond theory, is there meat on this bone? Will improvements in numeric representation justify the substantial disruption of splitting a school district?
• I’m fond of economies of scale and the opportunities large school districts can provide and small districts can’t. If split happens, will the new districts (in three different scenarios) be large enough to provide those benefits efficiently? For example, will a split seriously jeopardize the fine music programs my family and my city treasure?
• I have friends who watched the Jordan/Canyon split at close range some years ago, who report that the school district (largest) portion of their property taxes soared. Will that happen here?
• I’ve been expecting ASD’s western cities to leave soon anyway and thinking they probably should. Is this a reasonable plan for doing so? Is it carefully thought out? Is the timing sensible?
• Forgive me for being provincial, but what will be best for my city, American Fork? Whatever the western cities do, would American Fork and the other central cities be better going or staying in the long run?
• I understand that any large organization, government or otherwise, bureaucracy or otherwise, will naturally prefer its own survival and growth. How much of the narrative coming from ASD and many of its employees is primarily institutional self-defense, and how much should be weighed on its merits?

I have many friends and neighbors who are teachers and administrators in the district. They’re some of the best people I know. So you may wonder why their jobs and salaries aren’t on my worry list. Explaining that would be opinion and analysis, so it will have to wait a few minutes.

Onward.

Housekeeping

Be my guest

I hoped to post this essay a week or two ago, and much shorter, but it wasn’t ready. So I didn’t post this invitation either, and it’s almost too late. But I love guest posts here at afelection.info, and so do a lot of readers.

If you’ve written (perhaps for social media) some expression of your thoughts on this issue that you’d like to see in electronic print here, please contact me right away for details, using this site’s Contact Us link, Facebook Messenger, or wherever else you can find me. Election Day itself is eight days hence, and mail-in ballots are already out. You don’t have to agree with me; it’s probably more helpful and interesting to readers if you don’t.

Comments on this post are welcome too. I approve almost all non-spam, non-anonymous comments, regardless of position.

Two requests

As a fellow voter, I have two requests of you.

First, before you decide how to vote, please listen to (or read) serious people on both sides. You and I simply don’t have a clear enough view of the matter to vote wisely, if we haven’t heard and considered both sides.

Here are some places to look online. The All About American Fork Facebook group has had some good posts from both sides. Discussion there is moderated and tends to be civil. You might consult some local newspapers, including the Lehi Free Press, the newly-revived American Fork Citizen, and the larger, better-known papers. Broadcast media have paid considerable attention lately, and there are websites and information meetings on both sides. The county’s official Voter Information Pamphlet has arguments on both sides.

Second, please reject any arguments that people on either side of this issue are anti-teacher, anti-parent, anti-education, or anti-child. Anyone who tells you that is selling something. (Yes, I’d much rather be watching The Princess Bride than this year’s election.) Good people on both sides care very much about children, teachers, education, and their communities. Both sides care equally, as far as I can see; I don’t know that either side could care more. Both sides are working for better schools and the best interests of present and future students.

Without further ado, here’s that info I promised.

On the ballot: Proposition 11 and Proposition 14

Voters in Alpine, American Fork, Cedar Hills, Highland, Lehi, and the portion of Draper which is in Utah County will see Proposition 11 on their ballots. If Prop 11 passes, a new school district will be formed, effective July 1, 2027. (I’ll call this area Central here.)

Voters in Eagle Mountain, Saratoga Springs, Cedar Fort, and Fairfield will see Proposition 14 — essentially the same thing, to form their own new school district, effective at the same time. (I’ll call this area the West.)

Voters in Orem, Lindon, Vineyard, and Pleasant Grove (the East) don’t have a similar ballot proposition. This may seem odd, but when you dig into the process, there’s a logic to it. In any case, they’re stuck waiting to see if the West and Central areas want to leave them. It’s rather the opposite of 2022, when we all watched to see if Orem would vote to leave ASD.

These propositions pass or fail on the combined vote in their respective areas, West and Central; individual city results don’t matter. (There’s one way American Fork’s vote could matter indirectly; we’ll get to that below.)

The only scenario in which the Alpine School District survives 2027 is if both areas defeat their propositions. If Central or West or both vote to leave, ASD will be dissolved and its assets (the people’s assets, mind you) distributed among the new districts according to state law.

Logically, there are four possible outcomes. These two seem the most likely:

• West and Central vote to split (Prop 11 and Prop 14 pass), Three new districts will be formed from the old one.
• West goes but Central stays — Prop 14 passes but Prop 11 fails — and two new districts are formed: West and Central-plus-East.

These next two seem less likely, and I would rate the latter as highly unlikely:

• West and Central both stay (both propositions fail), and the Alpine School District remains intact for the moment, until one or more cities leaves. (Lehi might be first.)
• West stays and Central goes — Prop 11 passes but Prop 14 fails — there will be two new districts: Central and West-plus-South.

Any new district will have its own elected school board, tax rates, budget, programs, policies, and name. New state law regulates the division of assets, after lessons learned in the Jordan/Canyon split in 2009 (after a vote in 2007), where there was extensive legal wrangling ultimately at taxpayer expense.

If you’re only here for information, here’s your exit. We’ll miss you, but thanks for reading this far.

Decision points

I live in American Fork, so I’ll be voting on Prop 11. The cases for and against Prop 14 in the West are somewhat different, but its likely outcome affects my thinking on Prop 11. So, after some general thoughts about representation, we’ll start in the West, with Prop 14.

Representation

Public school systems are government entities and should largely be treated as such. Yes, absolutely, teachers are special, and I don’t say that word with Utah sarcasm. A lot of them are outright heroic. Kids are special. A school is practically a sacred place. But public school systems are part of government.

I’ve long had a Jeffersonian sense that government is better when it’s closer to the people. When candidates say they want to reduce federal control of public education, I wish they wanted to reduce state control of education too. On the same principle, for me there’s a theoretical case to be made for splitting one XXXL district into three XL districts.

Please note that feeling represented doesn’t require that my elected representatives always do what I want; I’m not a child. But I need to feel that, generally, my views and interests are considered, not simply ignored, when decisions are made, even if they don’t go my way.

There are real, sometimes extraordinary costs when people are or feel chronically unrepresented. On a grand, historical scale, a lack of real and perceived representation led to the American Revolution, but I’m not advocating or predicting musket fire in Utah County. On a far smaller scale, consequences can include voters deciding to split school districts or rejecting proposed bond issues.

But there are other considerations, and I realize public schools aren’t just any old government agency. They’re as close to the heart as they can be. They’re deeply involved in how we raise our children, family by family and as communities and a civilization. For most of us, they were a large part of our lives during our most formative years. Small wonder there is very often more heat than light when questions and proposals arise.

Do the math

Currently, ASD’s seven-member school board represents over 400,000 people. If I found the right map and am reading it correctly, ASD covers approximately the same area as eight state legislative districts. I’m told ASD is approved to go to a nine-member board, which might be a little better but wouldn’t change the math very much. By contrast, the three proposed districts serving the same area would have 21 school board members in all (seven each). In numeric terms, we’d have about three times more representation.

I suspect you and I agree that representation matters in theory. But do enough voters, including parents of schoolchildren, feel sufficiently unrepresented to warrant breaking up a very large, generally functional school district? Will a breakup help? Will they feel more representation in the years after the split, if it happens?

My crystal ball was confiscated years ago due to persistent user incompetence, but these are key questions to me. They’re a big reason I’ve tried to listen to people from various parts of the district, not just think my own thoughts.

To be sure, better representation, in fact or feeling, won’t solve every problem. It may mitigate some and avoid others. But, split or not, good and bad tendencies will both likely persist. Nearly all teachers and administrators come out of the same educational culture and the same large pool of credentialed educators, and they’ll be serving the same cities and students as before.

All is not well in the West

For the West, representation is more than a theoretical issue. They’ve been feeling passed over for a while. Talk to people out there, including teachers and city officials, and you’ll hear some recurring themes.

A lot of school board votes are 4-3, with the West consistently on the losing side, A lot of other matters never get to a vote at all, if the Orem-led majority doesn’t favor them. The board’s procedures require a majority of board members to put anything on the agenda; this is highly unusual, and I’m told no other board in the area requires it. I’m not sure it’s even legal, but I haven’t had a chance to dig into it. On its face it’s a procedural way of suppressing non-majority voices and interests, including the West’s.

Remember how I said that feeling represented requires that my concerns and interests are weighed in decision processes? A large group of city officials from around ASD met with stakeholders to assess their needs and wants, as the current process was just beginning. When they tried to share their findings with ASD, ASD wasn’t interested.

Some federal Title 1 funds (to help disadvantaged students) are allocated to school districts on a per-qualifying-student basis. Then districts determine how those funds are allocated to schools. I’m told ASD sends the funds it gets for students in Western schools to Orem, which has a higher percentage of qualifying students.

Schools are so crowded out West that there’s no room for programs other schools have, which schools in the West want for their students. There are reports — disputed by opponents of the split — of students having to sit on the floor in overcrowded classrooms.

City fire marshals reportedly are considering ordering some schools closed — not out of malice or to flex bureaucratic muscle, but to force a solution. There’s also talk — at least back-channel talk, for now — about a possible building moratorium in at least one city in the West, where a massive new subdivision — thousands of homes — is in development, and the ASD says there’s no money for new schools.

“This is how broken the west is,” someone told me.

The 2022 bond issue defeat

I’ve heard more than one opponent of the propositions say, “If the West wanted their new schools, they should have passed the bond issue in 2022.” Blaming the victim here provides a good example of two things: injecting more heat than light into the discussion, and the West’s ongoing grievances with the rest of the ASD.

You see, the West did vote to pass the bond. Combined, those cities voted in favor by more than an 8% margin, more than 54% for to less than 46% against. Lehi is in the Central area, for the purposes of these propositions, but it voted for the bond issue too, by more than 3%.

The bond issue failed because Alpine (40%), Orem (41%), Highland (43%), Lindon (43%), the Utah County portion of Draper (43%), Pleasant Grove (46%), Vineyard (47%), and American Fork (48%) voted against it. Let that settle in for a moment. Cities in other parts of the district voted down funding for (among other things) badly needed new schools in the West.

The bond issue’s failure led inevitably a substantial tax increase by ASD to meet some needs, but it was far from enough to pay for everything the bonds would have funded.

If I were in the West, I’d probably be out there stumping for Prop 14.

Everybody wants Lehi

I recall hearing that Lehi officials objected to a proposal putting them with the other cities in the West. They wanted to be with what I’m calling the Central cities. Lehi’s challenges are much like the West’s, though perhaps they’re further along in meeting them.

Lehi is a comparatively large city. Its population and tax base are large and growing rapidly too, with no end in sight. Consequently, the West wanted Lehi with them in Prop 14. The East wants them too. I want them, and I’m glad they’re in the Central area in Prop 11.

I expect the West to pass Prop 14 and leave ASD. It’s not a given that their own new school district will serve them responsibly and well — but at least it will be their own district, with a greater sense (and likely reality) of representation. Their population and tax base are growing rapidly; they have every chance to do well on their own. So, if the rest of ASD won’t help them build their schools, it’s hard to argue that they shouldn’t create their own district and do it themselves.

The only compelling reason I can see, hypothetically, for the West to reject Prop 14 is that it doesn’t include Lehi. If Prop 11 and Prop 14 both fail, I expect Lehi to be out the door sooner than later, and the West might hope Lehi would join them, not the other Central cities, in the next attempt.

I know it’s not just the West

I’m not saying other areas in ASD lack major challenges, and balancing competing needs is always difficult. Pleasant Grove and Orem high schools don’t qualify for enough teachers to teach all the courses required for graduation, so they have to be subsidized. As noted, Lehi faces large, rapid growth. Some schools in the Central area are well beyond their intended capacity. And I’m only scratching the surface. None of this is easy — and as adults typically do, in government, business, and life generally, voters have to make the best decisions they can on incomplete information.

Size matters, but is ASD too big or just right?

The Alpine School District’s land area is reportedly 787 square miles. If it were perfectly square, each side would be about 28 miles. The student population is about 85,000; by that measure ASD is by far the largest school district in Utah. There are fewer than 40 larger districts in the entire United States.

By comparison, the Snake River School District in southeast Idaho, where I attended from the last six weeks of fourth grade through my high school graduation, has roughly the same land area. It had about 1,500 students when I was there. So ASD has about 57 times more students. I have seen close up the many benefits of larger schools and larger districts from both sides, and I quite like them.

But the proposed split is not a matter of creating small districts out of a large one. We might say the proposals combined would create three size XL districts out of one XXXL district.

Given the likelihood that the West cities are leaving, a key question for voters in the Central cities, including American Fork, relates to size. If Prop 11 passes, the Central cities are on our own as a XL district. If Prop 11 fails and Prop 14 passes, we’re still with Orem, Pleasant Grove, and the rest of the East, a size XXL affair. There is great concern about losing programs by getting smaller; will that be significantly different between XL and XXL (or XXXL, for that matter)?

For my part, I think XL — especially when it includes Lehi — is big enough for us to have the programs to which we’re so attached, including excellent music programs. It may even be easier to keep them, if we’re not constrained, say, by Orem not being able to afford them and Pleasant Grove routinely voting no on everything with dollar signs attached. (Maybe the latter is unfair, but the reputation is out there.)

Of course, some programs are unique. The important Dan Peterson (sp?) School in American Fork might be difficult to replicate. And the Christa McAuliffe Space Center in Pleasant Grove — I’m a big fan — would be outside of the West and Central districts, if they split. But if we allow unique, one-off programs like these to be deal breakers, the district will never split, which seems to be the point for some.

This question is almost rhetorical, but not quite: is it really that hard for school districts to share unique resources? Wouldn’t sharing (presumably for a fee) the Dan Peterson School, the Space Center, and the Clear Creek Camp, for example, be in the financial interest of any district that has them?

Music, for example

Schools in the ASD are renowned for and deservedly proud of their music programs. More than one Prop 11 opponent has assured me that if it passes, music programs will be the first to go, when our new, XL-size district gets out its spreadsheets and starts making hard decisions.

Music and other arts programs often are the first to go; somehow it’s never football. But I think we’re giving ASD too much credit and the people in the district too little. I think ASD schools have great arts programs because the people here value them so much that ASD has to value them almost that much too. I don’t think people value them so much here because ASD says we should.

If I may focus too narrowly for a moment, I’ve been told that Prop 11 could bring the stellar American Fork Marching Band down to earth. I’m a big proponent of the band; it’s been very good for two of my children and my community, and I’ve given it many volunteer hours. But I’ve also been behind the scenes enough to see that ASD hasn’t necessarily been a reliable ally. For example, more than once in recent years, ASD’s debatable interpretations of state policy have threatened the program.

All else being equal (if it ever is), I might feel more confident of the AF Band’s continued excellence with, presumably, two local members of an XL district’s school board defending American Fork than I do with one local member on an XXXL district’s board.

Foreshadowing

In suggesting here that challenges in Orem and other cities in the East could limit opportunities for students in the Central cities, I’m hinting at another legitimate concern. Where will the outcome, whatever it is, leave the East? I may be wrong, but there one might more plausibly fear losing music education and other programs there, especially if schools with shrinking student bodies can’t be consolidated for political reasons.

If split happens, the people there will have to be vigilant and determined — as will we all, of course.

I expect successful programs at the school level to continue. As new, smaller districts get on their feet, there’s a high probability that their programs will be better tailored to local needs and interests. We may see them add programs which make sense for them but might not have made sense for the entire ASD.

Anecdotally: Where size meets representation

It’s a 30-minute drive in moderate traffic from my my home, one minute from the ASD central offices, mostly west to Cedar Valley High School in Eagle Mountain. When I made that drive for a meeting the other day, I found myself thinking how inconvenient it would be, if I lived out there and wanted or needed to attend school board meetings or visit district officials.

I could drive 10 or 15 minutes from home in the opposite direction (east) and still be passing ASD schools, and I haven’t even mentioned Orem, Lindon, and Vineyard. I can see how it might be difficult for district officials, elected and otherwise, to get their heads and the rest of their bodies around the entire ASD, even when they want to, and to understand the needs and interests of so many different communities, so they can weigh them fairly and reasonably. “Out of sight, out of mind” happens, whether we want it to or not.

Size matters less when everything’s okay or even mostly okay. But how much influence do you want Eagle Mountain and Saratoga Springs to have in deciding whether to close a school in Orem or Pleasant Grove? If you’re in Eagle Mountain, how much power do you want Orem and American Fork to have over whether you get those new schools you need?

When there’s trouble, how far from home should you have to go to talk to someone at your local school district who might help? How big a machine should you have to try to move? That sort of thing won’t be easy in an XL district, if split happens, but it might be a bit easier than it is now in an XXXL district.

Money, money, money

About two-thirds of my property tax bill goes to ASD, so even at the household level costs are a significant question.

There’s an argument to be made for keeping tax revenues closer to home. Smaller districts facilitate that to a degree, but, again, we’re not talking about small districts, and it’s not an argument I’ve heard much this fall.

What I hear from opponents of the split is that everyone’s taxes will go up, as the East grapples with shrinking student populations and possible school closures and the West in particular faces the need to build more schools immediately.

Proponents note there’s at least one scenario where Central’s taxes could go down, because those cities won’t need to help buy schools for the West or subsidize East schools with shrinking student populations.

In any case, each new district, two or three of them, will need an administration and all the administrative infrastructure. I expect that to cost significantly more than one-third of ASD’s current administrative costs.

Here’s what I predict: If the districts split, our taxes will increase. If ASD remains intact, our taxes will increase.

That said, opposition warnings that taxes might double or triple with a split are ridiculous — but familiar from debates on some other local issues. Fear-mongering isn’t confined to national politics.

Which scenario will raise our taxes more in the long run, splitting or staying together? That’s a crap shoot. Better representation can tend to restrain such things, but it doesn’t always, and we don’t always want it to.

The ASD is perennially well managed fiscally; this is widely acknowledged. Maybe one or more of the new, smaller districts would be less so, maybe not. If any such problems do arise, they’ll be closer to the people, and the odds of resolving them will be correspondingly better.

A school district’s credit rating is important, and ASD’s is excellent. New districts’ credit ratings might not be quite as good at first, because they’re new. This shouldn’t be a deal-breaker either, and in the present debate it feels like one of those spaghetti arguments you throw at the wall, just to see what might stick.

Where size and money meet: a bonding problem

In November 2022 Orem voters rejected a proposal to leave ASD and form their own district; the vote wasn’t even close. At the same time, district-wide, voters rejected that $595 million proposed ASD bond issue I mentioned above.

Building new schools is expensive, if you’ll pardon the understatement. So is expanding schools to increase capacity. So is rebuilding existing schools for earthquake safety. And you can’t realistically tax enough to replace bonding; that’s why you bond.

The bond issue defeat had consequences. One was a hefty tax increase to fund some of the things the defeated bonds would have funded. Those things were necessarily delayed somewhat, but other, unfunded projects were delayed even more.

Voters rejecting their cities’ proposed bond issues is a familiar occurrence. I don’t remember ASD ever having the same experience. Some said it was the first time; others said it was “one of the first times.”

I’ve lately discovered serious concern, among those who worry about such things, that ASD’s huge size may now impede bonding. The district is so large that a single bond issue to fund its needs may have simply grown too big to pass. Voters see big numbers — in 2022, well over half a billion dollars — and naturally shy away. They don’t stop to calculate per-student amounts or anything like that. They just vote no.

The thinking is that, if three XL (but not XXXL) districts had proposed bond issues to fund their own needs, with far smaller absolute numbers, they’d likely have passed.

This problem, if it’s real — I think it may be — will only get worse. Splitting ASD should help, at least for a while.

Timing

We ought to ask, is this the right time to split, or even a good time?

Opponents say no. Whether they think it’s a bad time because they’re opponents, or they’re opponents because they think it’s a bad time, is an interesting question but perhaps irrelevant.

Some opposing arguments in this vein do not move me. They’re too common. They come up virtually every time someone wants to oppose something in local government.

It’s “too hasty”? It “needs more study” or “more discussion”? These are familiar delaying tactics. How much more study over what period of time, they usually don’t try to say. The chief thing is to defeat the current proposal.

Dividing the ASD has been studied and discussed since at least 2006. The legislation under which the Jordan/Canyon split occurred was crafted with ASD in mind, though Jordan and Canyon got there first. (It’s far more economical to learn expensive lessons from others’ experience than our own.) More recently, Orem considered a split two years ago, and there was extensive debate. Various forms of the current propositions have been studied and discussed ever since. Outside consultants have been consulted (and paid). Then every city council that had to vote to be a part of the interlocal agreements which are behind the current proposals voted unanimously to join them and send them to the voters.

Some things should be studied more before they’re proposed, but in this case that argument is a delaying tactic too — sincerely felt by some, I’m sure, but too familiar to get much traction with me.

Opponents also say the process wasn’t collaborative. Proponents report trying to meet with teachers and school administrators for discussions as things developed, but being told by school principals that the district had forbidden such meetings. I’ve seen enough from ASD and other districts over the years to believe the proponents here. ASD is good at controlling the narrative, and it has the twin advantages of captive audiences and massive size.

I’ve heard arguments that any split should be initiated by the district itself, not the cities. I’ve actually heard ASD officials say that cities should “stay in their lane.” It’s not a new argument: the education establishment knows what’s best for our children, and cities, voters, and parents should leave such things to the experts.

Besides my native arrogance, I’ve done enough teaching (though mostly at the college level) to be confident that I know how to teach my particular subjects to my students better than most parents and most city officials. But I am not so arrogant as to believe that I know my students better than their families do, or that I know the voters better than local elected officials do. Professional expertise notwithstanding, I’ll be the first to admit that parents’ rights and responsibilities with respect to their children, including their education, trump (small t, please) a teacher’s or a school’s.

And the cities? Their authority and responsibility with respect to school districts is black letter law. They are absolutely in their lane, even when they propose a split.

“Ask an educator”

Opponents urge voters to “ask an educator.” I say, ask ten educators. Ask twenty. Ask educators on both sides. I’ve had a good number of educators offer me their views without my asking, and I’m grateful.

But don’t ask just educators. Ask parents on both sides. Ask city officials (on both sides, if you can find them). Ask random voters.

Some educators are worried about their jobs or their salaries, if split happens. It’s hard to blame them. But my job and salary in private industry aren’t guaranteed either. And more to the point, the schools aren’t going anywhere, even if some may have new management in mid-2027. The students aren’t going anywhere. We’ll need just as many teachers, if not more, if split happens, and there will be more districts in the area to compete for them, which shouldn’t hurt their salaries any. And I’m confident we’ll need more administrators in the aggregate too. I expect a good superintendent costs a little less for an XL district than an XXXL district, but not two-thirds less.

As you ask educators, please remember — with abundant compassion and a dollop of skepticism — these three things:

• We’re talking about splitting their employer into as many as three new entities. Most people don’t like change, especially at work. (I tend to be one of them.)
• Their primary source of information in many cases is ASD officials or a union with understandable vested interests in the status quo.
• Expertise in teaching and abundant love for students don’t aways come bundled with wisdom about how best to organize and run a school district.

So ask educators. Listen to what they say. Thank them for who they are and what they do. Promise to support them, no matter which district issues their paychecks in Fall 2027. But ask parents and taxpayers and city councilors and city managers and mayors too. It’s about the students, but it’s not just about the students.

As we often say here, learn before you vote.

Maybe it’s just me

My first detailed exposure to this discussion was an information meeting at the American Fork Library where two members of the ASD board presented lengthy arguments against it. One is a longtime friend and political ally. I have no reason to suppose the other is not a fine person too.

I went to that meeting fully prepared to oppose the propositions, because some things in Utah County are driven more by ideological zeal than good sense, even things I’d favor in theory. Before the meeting was over, their arguments against the propositions had nudged me toward favoring them, before I ever discussed things in detail with proponents.

I’ll note some specific arguments, but first I must say two things about that meeting.

• Much of the substantial audience, I soon learned, consisted of mayors and city council members from the affected cities, who were of a decidedly different mind from the presenters. I listened to their comments and questions, then chatted with some of them after the meeting.
• I admire elected officials who will show up to take unscripted questions from an audience which at least in part disagrees with them. We don’t always get that from candidates and officials.

A plan

Besides the boilerplate needs-more-study and too-hasty arguments, we hear opponents suggest they might be willing to consider a proposal, if there were a plan or, in some cases, more of a plan. Sometime we hear this even when there is a detailed, carefully developed, publicly available, well publicized plan, in which case pretending there isn’t a plan is outright deception. This is not one of those times.

This proposed change is so big that it’s not even practical to create a thorough, detailed, and inevitably expensive plan until we know we need it. That’s how government works. If we have a four-lane highway that needs to be six now, which we expect to need twelve lanes thirty years from now, we don’t build it out with twelve lanes now. It doesn’t make fiscal or political sense.

If the voters choose a split next week, we’ll have three years to plan it in detail, in compliance with state law about dividing assets and such. In this matter “there’s no plan” doesn’t move me.

For the children

Here are two quotes from the presenters at the meeting.

• “This will affect our children for generations.”
• “I wish this discussion was about how to improve educational outcomes for students.”

Maybe it’s just me. Maybe I’ve been watching these things too long. But I hear in such statements a thinly-veiled assertion that others don’t care as much about children or the future as the people making these statements do.

As far as I can see, this discussion is all about what’s best for children — and their families and voters and taxpayers and communities and society at large, and teachers and administrators and staff. I found the familiar implications to the contrary somewhat offputting.

I was never indoctrinated to believe that the educational establishment cares more about children and grandchildren than their families do, or that only the establishment has the expertise necessary to make educational decisions for children and whole societies.

“Alpine is really good at connecting with parents,” I heard — another potentially condescending statement in a room mostly full of elected city officials. We’ll have a good test of comparative parental connections next week.

It’s only a short step from these arguments to sharper rhetoric we’re hearing from others. Please see my second request, near the beginning of this post.

The school board members in that meeting argued that you shouldn’t split a school district whose student performance metrics aren’t down. They did not concede that, when you see problems developing that will affect student outcomes — I’d say, the kinds of outcomes we measure and the kinds we don’t — you might not want to wait until those problems are fully developed.

Come to think of it, if the metrics were slipping, a district split wouldn’t be high on my list of curative measures.

My developing view

I’ve long thought a split is inevitable eventually. Even if it’s less obviously necessary now that it will be after a few more years of dramatic growth, now might be no worse a time than any. This strikes me as a good time to rip off the band-aid.

The current plan seems sensible to me, as sensible as we can reasonably expect from political processes. The East, Central, and West areas have different needs in some ways, and each has a growing tax base.

As to timing and “lanes” and a plan, do we really expect a large government organization to produce a plan for its own dissolution that’s robust enough to attract a majority vote? We ought not wait for ASD’s approval or enthusiasm.

To me the arguments are stronger for Prop 14 (which isn’t on my ballot) than for Prop 11 (which is). I haven’t voted yet, and I’m still listening, reading, and thinking about things. But I expect to vote for Prop 11. You, of course, should vote as you think best.

As I’ve said, I think XL will prove to be big enough. To that end, as an American Forker, I want to be with Lehi — in part because of their large and growing tax base, in part because the Central communities seem somehow (subjectively as much as geographically) to fit together. If Prop 11 fails, it’s likely that Lehi will leave soon anyway. If American Fork contributes to that failure, Lehi might try to leave without us next time.

Expectations

You never want to underestimate the education establishment’s ability to control a large segment of the vote, but I expect Prop 14 to pass by a large margin, perhaps 10-15 percent or more. I think Prop 11 has a better-than-even chance of passing, but if it does, it will most likely be close.

Whatever happens, even if it’s nothing, we’ll still have students and schools and teachers and staff. We voters will still need to invest money, time, and care, even vigilance, to insure that the public school experience everywhere is good, and that it’s excellent, even wonderful, in as many places and ways as we can feasibly manage.

Thanks for reading.

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Image credit: alpinedistrict.maps.arcgis.com

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David Rodeback was born in Boulder, Colorado, and came to American Fork in 1998 via southeast Idaho and upstate New York.

His occasional writings about politics and government beyond the local level now appear at The Freedom Habit Substack, where a free subcription puts them in your e-mail inbox, so you don’t have to trust an algorithm or search engine.

His published fiction, which mostly isn’t about politics or government, is available online at all the usual places (see 60EastPress.com for more information and easy links) and also at American Fork’s fine mostly-used book store, HideAway Books, in the Local Authors section. You can even find his books at the American Fork Library.